Somalia’s survival depends on fundamental governance reform

The ongoing violence and instability in Somalia are symptoms of a broken government system marked by corruption and a lack of accountability. Without radical reform, Somalia will be stuck in a cycle of bloodshed. 

Somalia’s ongoing violence and instability are the direct result of deep-rooted governance failures that have crippled the nation’s ability to protect its citizens and ensure lasting peace. To break this destructive cycle, Somalia must undertake fundamental governance reforms to separate powers and address systemic corruption. Only by doing this will the country be able to establish a government that is accountable, effective, and truly representative of its people’s needs and aspirations for a stable, prosperous, and united Somalia. 

A staggering number of Somali lives have been lost or forever altered by al-Shabaab terrorist attacks over the past. Estimates put total casualties at over 10,000. It is a collective duty to reject the status quo which doesn’t serve us and work towards a Somalia where peace, security, and stability are the norm. Somalis deserve to live without the constant fear of violence overshadowing their lives. 

The root of the crisis 

At the heart of Somalia’s crisis is a fundamental flaw: the blurred lines between the legislative and executive branches. This overlap undermines the separation of powers, compromises governance and accountability, and directly affects the country’s security. A clear example is the recent appointment of four MPs to cabinet positions, creating a conflict of interest that hampers the legislative branch’s ability to scrutinise the work of the executive. How deeply would you inquire into the value or efficacy of your own activities when you’re the judge, jury and executioner?  

The situation is worsened by lawmakers who often threaten to impeach the prime minister if not appointed as ministers, holding the executive hostage to their ambitions. Somalia, a fragile state still recovering from decades of conflict, cannot afford such conflicts of interest, especially amid ongoing security threats. A more robust and well-designed constitution could solve this.  

Power imbalance 

Somalia’s governance challenges are further complicated by the apparent relegation of the prime minister to a largely ceremonial role, a shift seemingly favoured by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. This dynamic has weakened the essential checks and balances needed for effective governance. It has made the executive branch more susceptible to presidential influence and blurring the lines between government branches resulting in a concentration of power in the president. 

The current constitution (which is still being fully ratified) envisions a system of shared executive authority, with the prime minister leading the government to ensure balanced power distribution. However, the president’s dominance has disrupted this balance, compromised government accountability and reduced it to little more than a symbolic entity, functioning in name only without real authority or effectiveness. 

This causes decision-making bottlenecks, where critical policies are stalled or manipulated for political gain. This has made the government increasingly unresponsive, less accountable, and ineffective in addressing the nation’s challenges. 

A paralysed parliament 

Somalia’s legislative branch is also deeply dysfunctional. Frequent parliamentary failures due to an insufficient number of MPs turning up to constitute a session highlight the institution’s inability to fulfil its constitutional obligations and meet the expectations of its constituents. 

A primary contributor to Somalia’s political dysfunction is the clan-based power-sharing system known as the 4.5 formula. This system allocates equal quotas to the four major pastoralist clans while granting a smaller share to a group of marginalised clans. As a result, the pastoralist clans hold disproportionate power and shape policies to their benefit. This leaves marginalised clans with minimal influence and limited access to justice, economic opportunities, and equitable political participation compromising the principle of equal citizenship.  

The 4.5 system has transformed parliament into a business entity rather than a public institution as competence and public support aren’t the basis for election. It fosters a culture of absenteeism, incompetence, and political opportunism. As a result, policies often serve the political elite and their interests, rather than addressing the needs of the Somali people, undermining both the effectiveness of the democratic process and the integrity of governance. 

Somalia’s political challenges stem from a flawed selection process for MPs. Seats are often sold to the highest bidder. Reports indicate that millions are spent on buying delegates, turning parliament into a revolving door for those seeking presidential influence. Somalia has a two-chamber parliament, with a 275-member lower house and a 54-member upper chamber. But it is undermined by a system where MPs are chosen by delegates appointed by clan elders and regional officials, who then vote for the president. As long as systemic corruption—marked by vote-buying, fraud, and intimidation—persists, Somalia will continue to lack true political representation, and the legitimacy of its legislative body will remain in question. 

The security crisis 

Somalia’s governance crisis is evident in Mogadishu’s deteriorating security situation. Despite significant investment, the government has failed to prevent civilian deaths. It has prioritised the protection of officials and institutions over broader public safety. This misallocation of resources has created vulnerabilities that al-Shabaab continues to exploit. 

Al-Shabaab’s continued success, despite existing security measures, raises serious concerns about corruption, complicity, or incompetence within the security forces. These concerns are compounded by allegations that some MPs who share clan affiliations with perpetrators have facilitated the release of individuals tied to al-Shabaab. Such stories further undermine trust in the government’s ability to maintain security. It’s alarming that these MPs, aware of the threats posed by such individuals, still prioritise clan loyalty over the broader safety and security of the nation. 

These issues expose deep flaws in Somalia’s security apparatus, where corruption and a lack of accountability allow terrorism to persist. Urgent reforms are needed to restore public trust and strengthen the state’s capacity to protect its citizens. Without these reforms, the cycle of violence and instability will continue. 

The urgent need for reform 

Somalia needs a complete overhaul of its governance and security approach, as failures in one area directly impact the other. 

Establishing a clear separation between the legislature and executive is crucial for ensuring good governance, promoting accountability, and creating a stable environment for economic growth. Without these fundamental reforms, the bloodshed in Mogadishu is likely to continue. 

Somalia stands at a critical crossroads. The persistent scourge of corruption and a dysfunctional governance system has fuelled a security crisis that threatens the very fabric of the nation. To reverse this trajectory, Somalia must undergo a radical transformation. A clear separation of powers, a robust security apparatus, and accountable leadership are essential to establish a stable and prosperous future. 

The international community, which has invested heavily in Somalia, must continue to support these efforts by providing targeted assistance and applying diplomatic pressure to hold our leaders accountable. It is crucial to direct these resources toward necessary reforms. 

Only through these reforms can Somalia break the cycle of violence, move toward lasting peace and stability, and realise its full potential as a responsible member of the global community. 

This article was initially published on LSE Blogs. It has been slightly modified to fit the Geeska house style, but the original can be read here.