The power struggle for control of Tigray

Analysts warn that the power struggle in Tigray between the TPLF and the interim administration carries the risk of conflict if the dispute in the northern region isn’t resolved.   

The Tigray region of northern Ethiopia faces the possibility of renewed conflict as the governing Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) appears to be heading towards a split along factional lines. The party recently expelled its interim President of Tigray, Getachew Reda, along with all members of the interim administration established by the federal government, dividing the party into two main factions since the end of the civil war, which was fought between its military wing, the Tigray Defence Force, and federal government forces. 

Tensions escalated last month after Ethiopia’s election board recognised the TPLF as a new party, rather than reinstating its previous legal status as demanded by the old guard, led by Debretsion Gebremichael, a veteran member of the party and its current chairperson. The old guard opposed the recognition of the ‘new’ party endorsed by the current interim President of Tigray, Getachew Reda. 

Last month, Debretsion was re-elected as TPLF chairperson in a referendum-like vote on the party’s new recognition, at a congress deemed illegal by Ethiopia’s election board. Getachew’s faction boycotted the congress, declaring the outcome “null and void”. 

The split has deepened the legitimacy crisis within the TPLF, with both factions hardening their positions. There is now a potential for instability and the risk of renewed conflict engulfing Tigray, which could escalate into a full-scale war, potentially becoming a proxy conflict involving neighbouring Eritrea if party divisions remain unresolved. 

William Davison, an expert on Ethiopia and owner of the popular Ethiopian Insight website, believes that few in the region desire such crises, but warns that the longer the dispute persists, the more likely violence becomes. 

“Tigray’s battered economy and the Pretoria agreement have weakened Getachew Reda’s leadership, which helps explain the challenge to his position,” Davison told Geeska. 

“The congress’s decision to exclude him signals a hardening of the dispute, with no apparent interest in compromise. This could plunge the region into internal conflict, especially if the political split seeps into Tigray’s security apparatus,” he added. 

Seen as a criticism of the interim government, the TPLF leadership continues to call for democratic elections in the region and replace the interim government. They also demand the delayed return of displaced people to disputed lands, insisting these territories, currently occupied by Amhara since the start of the war in 2020, be transferred back to Tigray. 

“The interim government, under Getachew Reda, should have worked to establish a democratically competitive government for the long-term benefit of the region,” Fisha Haftesion, an executive member of the TPLF, said at a press conference last week. 

Meanwhile, the interim government in Mekelle has accused the TPLF of creating chaos and division within the vulnerable region, warning of potential violence that could invite “external interference in the region.” It has called for dialogue and negotiation to resolve the impasse. 

Tigray is currently facing a famine believed to be comparable to the infamous Ethiopian famine of 1984, with a tepid response from the Ethiopian federal government and international donors. The region also faces the threat of a potential civil war with neighbouring Amhara and a budget dispute with the central government in Addis Ababa, further worsening its dire situation. This contrasts sharply with where the TPLF was prior to 2018.  

Not long ago, the TPLF, under the leadership of the late strongman Meles Zenawi, was a dominant political force. The TPLF led a coalition of armed groups that overthrew former leader Mengistu Haile Mariam. After capturing the capital, Addis Ababa, in the early 1990s, Zenawi and the TPLF transitioned from rebel guerrillas to a ruling party that remained in power for nearly three decades. Zenawi’s tenure was marked by a central paradox, which also influenced how people viewed his character: his regime was repressive and merciless, yet it was open to the west and succeeded in driving significant economic growth in Ethiopia. 

Channel 4’s international editor, Lindsey Hilsum, who met Zenawi in 98’ described him as “a new kind of African leader” who wasn’t a “flamboyant kleptocrat like Mobutu or Mugabe” but was more like Rwanda’s Paul Kagame: ruthless but competent. Bill Clinton echoed Hilsum’s enthusiasm calling him part of a “new generation” of African leader. Adekeye Adebajo inquired about whether he was a “philosopher-king or cruel despot”, concluding that he was a “pragmatic autocrat”. Barry Malone said he was a “dictator” but a rather “complex and sophisticated” one and Armin Rosen, writing for The Atlantic, said Zenawi was “shrewd” and “brutal”, gaining a fearsome reputation at home, whilst cultivating the image of a bookish leader, reliable security partner and responsible economic steward abroad. His strong grip on the Ethiopian state meant those qualities percolated into its statecraft during his reign.     

The TPLF became a formidable powerhouse in the region and across the continent, noted for its economic success and powerful military but its dominance ended in 2018 with the rise of current Ethiopian prime minister Abiy Ahmed. This marked the beginning of the TPLF’s political demise as Abiy sought to remove the party’s networks of influence and presence within the state. That eventually led to a standoff in 2018 which escalated to a civil war that claimed hundreds of thousands of lives and displaced millions.  

In early November 2022, the government signed a peace deal with the TPLF in South Africa, in which Tigrayan forces agreed to disarm and accept the return of federal authority in the form of an interim administration. Federal authorities for their part lifted the terrorist designation for the TPLF and agreed to open dialogue channels to resolve Mekelle’s issues. At the time, the current head of the interim administration, Getachew Reda, described the deal as a set of “painful concessions”. The Pretoria agreement or rather its implementation, has divided Tigrayan elites.  

In an effort to reduce tensions, Tigray’s regional security chief, Tadesse Worede, has urged all parties to exercise restraint and imposed a ban on demonstrations across the volatile region, while allowing political gatherings to continue between the two factions. 

Tadesse has warned that unrest threatens to further destabilise Tigray, which, amid a widening political divide, is already grappling with famine, the displacement of many of its citizens, and unresolved territorial disputes with the Amhara region. 

US ambassador Ervin Jose Massinga visited Mekelle last month to stress the importance of the 2022 peace deal to all parties, renewing calls for lasting stability in the region. The Biden administration has invested significant political capital and resources to ensure the realisation of the Pretoria Peace Agreement. 

However, with escalating divisions within the TPLF, peace remains elusive. 

One of the key figures emerging in opposition to Getachew is Lt. General Tsadkan Gebretensae, an influential leader within the TDF. Among his main criticisms of Reda’s interim government are that it is becoming elitist and not inclusive of the old guard or Tigray’s opposition parties. 

Alula Haile Negga, chairman of one of the most prominent opposition parties in Tigray, argues that the new tensions are driven by political ambition of different factions.  

“The ongoing infighting within the TPLF is not a struggle between reformists and sellouts, but rather a fierce competition for power. Both factions are scrambling for any advantage they can gain to emerge victorious in this internal conflict,” he told Geeska. 

Legesse Tulu, Ethiopia’s government communication minister, criticised the TPLF congress, stating that it threatens the fragile peace previously achieved in Tigray. He emphasised that all political movements must operate within legal boundaries, warning that failure to do so could lead to destruction. 

Legesse also accused the TPLF of repeatedly violating its obligations under the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which mandates compliance with federal laws and procedures. 

“By holding an illegal congress, the TPLF has once again breached the terms of the peace deal,” he said.  

Daniel Berhane, a Mekelle based political analyst, also believes the rift between the two camps is a power struggle with accompanying pretext and narratives.  

“I don't consider either faction sincerely democratic, but the possibility of severing party control of the government bothers the Debretsion faction more than Getachew’s faction. And that’s the only substantive issue worth noting”, Berhane said.   

“The federal government - at least elements within it - didn’t want such an integration to be realised. In fact, they worked hard to spoil, derail and undo such developments”, he concluded.