Somali red wave doesn’t materialise

In the run-up to election day, just 72 hours before ballots were to be submitted nationwide, over a dozen members of Minnesota’s Somali community held a press conference endorsing President-elect Donald Trump and his running mate, JD Vance—all of whom were former Democrats. The group included elders, religious scholars, businesspeople, university graduates, and parents, among others. In essence, nearly every segment of Somali society represented in the United States was on that podium as the endorsement was aired live via Alpha News, a Minnesota-based right-wing media outlet.

“My brother was killed in a US drone strike when Obama was president,” said Abshir Omar, a former aide and political director for Democrat Senator Bernie Sanders.

This incident played a role in shaping Abshir’s political worldview, but it did not immediately turn him towards the right. Trump after all carried out more strikes in Somalia than both his predecessors combined. The 34-year-old reflected on what he described as the Democrats’ transformation into the “party of war” and the “party of billionaires,” criticising them for sending billions overseas while ordinary Americans struggle at home.  “I became disillusioned”, he says. “I did not abandon my party, my party abandoned me.”  

One by one, members of the Somali community took to the microphone, expressing their frustrations with the ruling Democratic party – it was a moment of washamsi. Some raised concerns about the failing education system and its impact on their children, while others discussed the economy and similar pressing domestic issues. Among them was a Palestinian man, which shows how the situation in Gaza has resonated with the community, who said Trump is more likely to bring peace to the Middle East than Harris. “Kamala Harris won’t change anything,” he warned.  

Watching the nearly hour-long press conference, one could not help but wonder: was the Somali voting bloc, which has overwhelmingly supported Democrats, about to witness a shift towards the Republicans?

When the election was called in favour of Donald Trump on 6 November, the nation erupted in a red wave, though counties with significant Somali populations remained predominantly blue despite fidgeting within the community.  

Hennepin County, which includes the Minneapolis metropolitan area and is home to approximately 100,000 Somalis within a total population of around three million, voted 70% for Kamala Harris in this election—nearly identical to the 2020 election, when Joe Biden won the county.

This means that 3.3% of the 70% who voted Democrat in this election cycle came from the Somali community. Although not a large figure, it is significant, given that elections can be decided by a small margin, as seen in Michigan, where the predominantly Arab population in Dearborn helped tilt the state in Donald Trump’s favour by a few percentage points.

Similarly, the Somali community not only turned out for the Democrats but also elected one of their own into office, with Somali-American Anquam Mahamoud receiving over 87% of the vote to become the Democratic State Senator for Minnesota. Ilhan Omar, the most prominent Somali-American politician, was also re-elected to Congress. Representing Minnesota’s fifth district, she comfortably saw out an attempt to oust her by Republican candidate, Dalia al-Aqidi, an Iraqi-American who said she was pro-Israel. Omar received 75% and al-Aqidi got 23%.

The city of Columbus in Ohio is home to over 60,000 Somalis, according to research conducted by the prestigious Ohio State University. Although smaller in total population than Minneapolis, Columbus has 900,000 residents, making Somalis 6.6% of the total. Around 63% of this group voted for Kamala Harris, a slight drop for the Democrats compared to the last election cycle.  

The Greater Seattle Area (King County) in the Pacific Northwest has a smaller population than Columbus, at around 800,000, and is home to an estimated 40,000 Somalis. Kamala Harris and the Democrats secured 75% of the vote in this county, nearly matching the 2020 election results when Joe Biden won the county.

Despite some Somalis shifting to the right, the community remains overwhelmingly aligned with the Democratic party.

Elsewhere, Somali-American candidates made unsuccessful bids for public office, including Abdi Daisane, who lost to the Republican incumbent, Bernie Perryman, in a contest for a central Minnesota House seat, and Omar Podi and Hudda Ibrahim, who ran for positions on the St. Cloud City Council.

In my last article, I explored why some Somali voters were turning to the GOP, with reasons cited including economic priorities, concerns over Democratic social policies, and the Somali community’s increasing establishment, as individuals develop varied interests. Nevertheless, most Somali-American voters remain loyal to the Democrats.