Protests in Nigeria: a warning before “things fall apart" 

Protesters in Nigeria have issued a clear warning to the Bola Tinubu administration, urging it to address their concerns over rising living costs. It would be prudent for him to take these grievances seriously or risk further unrest. 

It seems that east and west Africa have exchanged places, with protest-related turmoil moving from Kenya, east Africa’s largest economy, through Uganda to Nigeria, west Africa’s largest economy as growing numbers of young people demand a fairer share of the economic pie. 

For several months, one of the most significant stories in Africa was the rise of the Sahel Alliance bloc and its standoff with Ecowas and the west. Amidst the high-level political manoeuvring, William Ruto was orchestrating a major economic and fiscal reform, which proposed shifting a greater portion of the financial burden onto poorer Kenyans through increased taxes. This was intended to enable the country to better meet its international financial commitments. The legislative package, known as the “Finance Bill”, ignited widespread protests across the country, unprecedented in Kenya’s history. The BBC referred to the demonstrators as “anti-tax revolutionaries”. These protests eventually compelled Ruto to withdraw the bill, dismiss his cabinet, and enforce pay cuts for government officials instead, as a means to address the fiscal shortfall. 

The unrest quickly spread to neighbouring Uganda, where the government of Yoweri Museveni met peaceful protests against widespread corruption with repression and arrests. “Across the continent, that gave a shot in the arm to the young people in Nigeria,” wrote the Guardian’s west Africa correspondent, Eromo Egbejule, showing the frustrated youth what was possible if they vocalised their demands.  

Then on 1 August, young Nigerians took to the streets of Lagos, Kano, Oyo, Rivers, FCT, Jigawa, Sokoto, Zamfara, under the slogan: “#EndBadGovernance”. The same spirit that drove Kenya’s bold demonstrations has now surfaced in Nigeria. The protests revealed widespread public dissatisfaction with the performance of the ruling system, headed by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who was elected just over a year ago.  

These events echo the uprisings of autumn 2020 under the rule of former President Muhammadu Buhari and have reignited a perennial series of questions about Nigeria. Despite being rich in natural resources and the continent’s largest oil producer, Nigeria continues to grapple with several bewildering challenges. And the stakes are extremely high; it is Africa’s most populous country, with projections suggesting it will surpass the United States in population by 2050. With the fourth most powerful military on the continent, it has important leadership responsibilities in the political, security and economic realms in its region and across the continent. Nigerians don’t just look to their country, but other Africans do too.  

A lost economic giant  

In 2013, Nigeria leaped to the forefront of African economies, surpassing South Africa, due to its vast oil production, which has led the continent since 1979. Production peaked at around 2 million barrels per day before falling to 1.6 million barrels per day due to oil theft in the Gulf of Guinea and the Niger Delta. Additionally, Nigeria holds the sixth-largest oil reserves in the world and the largest in Africa, along with significant natural gas and mineral reserves (tin, gold, lead, zinc...).  

However, topping these lists and achieving a GDP of $477 billion has not translated into improved daily living conditions for citizens. The per capita income is only $2,162. And According to the Global Poverty Clock (2022), Nigeria ranks as the country with the highest number of poor people in Africa, with a poverty rate of 40%, which translates to over 70 million Nigerians.  

 The per capita income is only $2,162. And According to the Global Poverty Clock (2022), Nigeria ranks as the country with the highest number of poor people in Africa, with a poverty rate of 40%, which translates to over 70 million Nigerians. 

These achievements have failed to improve Nigeria’s economic indicators. External debt surged from $7.3 billion in 2015 to $43 billion by 2023 during President Buhari’s tenure. The budget deficit has swelled to approximately $6.5 billion, while inflation hit a record high of 34% in June, the highest in three decades. This trend interlocks with high levels of youth unemployment, believed to be around 35% for Nigerians between 15 and 34 years of age. The country is also experiencing a “demographic bulge” with 66 million additional people expected to enter the workforce by 2030 with an economy not ready to absorb them.  

The situation has deteriorated further under the current president, Bola Tinubu. The exchange rate of the local currency, the naira, has gradually weakened from 197 naira per dollar in 2015 to 790 naira per dollar by 2023. With Tinubu's rise to power, the naira experienced a freefall, losing 70% of its value, and now trades at over 1,600 naira per dollar. The alarm bells are ringing.  

“Reforms” ignite the spark  

Nigeria is facing what analysts have described as its “severest economic crisis in decades.” 

Part of that is a fiscal problem linked to a large debt burden; and that has been compounded by a cost-of-living crisis. Nigeria’s two major unions held major protests back in June to force the government to take action, but it was in this delicate environment that Bola Tinubu decided to cut a fuel subsidy in May which had been in place since 1970. Fuel is the lubricant which greases our economies, and that decision has increased the price of everything that depends on it as its source of energy.  

June figures indicated that food inflation had reached a record high of 41%, while overall inflation stood at 34%. Although most experts supported the decision to remove the subsidy, it seems to have had severe unintended consequences for the Tinubu administration. 

For context, Tinubu is not solely responsible for the decision to lift the fuel subsidy. Nigeria’s state-owned petroleum company is owed $4.9 billion by the government for the subsidy, covering only the seven months leading up to July this year. Moreover, all presidential candidates acknowledged the necessity of allowing the naira to float against the dollar and conceded that the “fuel subsidy is unaffordable and needs to go,” as stated by Razia Khan, Chief Economist for the Middle East and Africa at Standard Chartered Bank. “There was just an acceptance on the part of Nigerians,” she added. However, Tinubu is accountable for failing to prepare the public for the consequences of this policy. His decision to partially reinstate the subsidy has not diffused the anger of protesters, as he might have hoped. 

The protests in Kenya, which evolved into broader anti-government sentiment, have inspired young Nigerians, who are similarly calling for Tinubu’s removal. So forceful were their demands that, in early August, some urged the military to depose the government, a suggestion swiftly dismissed. “Such calls and acts will be treated as treason and felony,” warned an army spokesperson. 

The protests in Kenya, which evolved into broader anti-government sentiment, have inspired young Nigerians, who are similarly calling for Tinubu’s removal. 

The president has realised that these protests, unlike those in 2020 against the SARS police unit, directly target his administration. In a televised speech he pleaded with young people to stop, attempting to assure them of the “government's commitment to addressing the concerns of our citizens.” Unlike the #EndSARS protests, which were much more organic, Nigerian writer Afolabi Adekaiyaoja says the public “fired warning shots” to Tinubu. “They gave the government notice that we are going to go and protest almost like a month before,” Adekaiyaoja told openDemocracy. “It gives you the sense that, clearly, there was an attempt to almost parlay the threats of this action into forcing the government to do something different.”  

The calls for calm were accompanied by violence from security forces, resulting in casualties, injuries, and hundreds of arrests among protesters. The Inspector General of Police, Kayode Egbetokun, has threatened to seek military assistance to quell the “chaos.” The appearance of Russian flags at some protests, a symbol of discontent now borrowed from demonstrations in Niamey, has further provoked Nigeria’s top brass. The Chief of Defence Staff, Christopher Gwabin Musa, stated: “The army will intervene when the situation crosses the line, and you can see subversive elements inciting individuals to carry Russian flags in Nigeria, which crosses red lines that we will not tolerate.”  

As the protests spread, the government-imposed curfews in five northern states and shifted its rhetoric towards the demonstrators. This led to an inconsistent approach in handling the uprising—oscillating between engagement and responsiveness, as seen in Kenya, and repression and persecution, as witnessed in Uganda. 

Ultimately, the government chose to crack down on the protesters. The president addressed the nation, declaring, “Our government will not stand idly by and allow a small group with a clear political agenda to tear this nation apart.” The administration skillfully diverted attention from the pressing social and economic crises—such as high prices, inflation, unemployment, and food security—by focusing on accusations of foreign influence, particularly pointing to Russia’s active agenda in the region. 

In an effort to reinforce its narrative, the secret police arrested tailors in the northern states of Borno, Kaduna, Kano, and Katsina, who had made the Russian flags displayed during the protests. Meanwhile, the Russian embassy in Abuja swiftly denied any involvement, issuing a press release stating: “Russian officials do not participate in these activities, nor do they coordinate them in any way.” 

A passing wave or a cautionary tale? 

What is happening in the country is a natural consequence of the new president’s reforms. A determined young population is desperate not to have to foot the bill for the profligacy and incompetence of their leaders. More recently, the purchase of a new multimillion-dollar jet by the president has become a symbol of this attitude. According to some experts, these reforms marked the beginning of a “new social compact” for development in the country. The message is a rejection of both the old social compact and the new one Nigeria’s elites are attempting to thrust down the throat of the population.  

The ruling regime in Abuja, much like its counterpart in Kampala, may succeed in temporarily suppressing and containing the protests through superficial measures that fail to address the nation’s core problems. These challenges require deep-rooted economic reforms aimed at elevating the country to the ranks of those with sound democratic governance, while also tackling the widespread corruption that has driven two-thirds of the population into poverty. Since gaining independence, corruption has cost Nigeria an estimated $400 billion. 

Nonetheless, the risk of future unrest persists. Regional dynamics and intense competition heighten this possibility, as global powers—China, Russia, France, and the United States—vie for influence in the region. Nigeria’s standing as the largest economy in west Africa, a key decision-maker within ECOWAS, and a central figure in global energy policies ensures that these nations will continue to seek its alignment with their interests. 

What has occurred in Nigeria, irrespective of developments in Kenya and Uganda, serves as a critical wake-up call for the government in Abuja to embark on a new era of governance and administrative reform before reaching a point of no return. When Catholic bishops join the calls it is a signal that the time has probably come. Neighbouring regimes provide clear examples of the consequences of failing to act, and the ongoing threat posed by extremist groups further heightens the risk of the country descending into violence and internal conflict.